Even market forecasters advise us to be careful about how much faith we put in market forecasts, except as a general indication of the direction of progress. But some people now tell us that the circular economy is a $4.5 trillion business opportunity. And, we learn, circular cities could create markets worth hundreds of billions of euros across Europe. Maybe, though some recent evidence suggests that this market sector has actually been shrinking.
Clearly, there is nothing inevitable about the circularity trend, but the potential benefits—including the potential for a dramatic acceleration of climate action, reduction of waste and a wide range of benefits for nature—suggest that interest in this sector will likely grow over time, at least in some parts of the world.
“Maturing and suiting up”
One technical problem standing in the way of future expansion is the lack of a common standard to define and measure circularity. That, says a recent article published by Trellis, is “the logic of scores of businesses from Amazon to Volkswagen, “big green” groups and governments backing the creation of the Global Circularity Protocol for Business (GCP).”
The piece continues: “The concept of the circular economy, which reshapes the ‘cradle to grave’ waste of industry in favor of recirculating or even regenerating resources, is maturing and suiting up.”
Then it quotes Dominic Waughray as an executive vice president at the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) as follows: “If you’ve been working on circularity, you’ll know that banks and others often say, ‘How do I know you’re circular? I don’t even understand what an asset class is for circularity.”
Another potential barrier—and accelerator, if handled well—is the customer experience side of things. This was the focus of a study by Clarasys and Exeter University a while back. After a recent meeting with Loic Le Fouest, a member of the Clarasys team, I decided to explore a bit further.
Customer experience is make-or-break
Based on their initial literature review, the team concluded that:
The shift from linear business models is not as straightforward as simply making and offering circular-driven products. Instead, research underscored the vital importance of the role of customers and users when moving towards a Circular Business Model (CBM).
Previous studies have argued that “the shift from a linear business model to a CBM still needs to satisfy the specific needs of customers, rather than merely make circular-driven products available.”
Critically “In a circular economy, consumers would be expected to perform a series of behaviours that enable circular consumption—but their role cannot be taken for granted.”
Customers’ very different profiles and personal characteristics, plus their inevitable changes over time, can make it difficult for companies to understand the full range of their expectations and behaviour.
So, being able to track changing their needs, priorities and perspectives will be even more important given the drastic changes likely to be needed in shifting from linear to circular economies.
None of this should surprise us, perhaps, particularly when offered by a market research agency—but the study was followed with a useful Circular Experience Design Guide, available here.
When it came to “circular value,” the Clarasys/Exeter research suggested that a key reason that many organisations struggle or fail to launch successful CBMs at scale is because:
“They were built ‘inside out’ with a strong focus on hitting sustainability targets, preparing for shifting legislation or trying to streamline operations. And while these are all good reasons to invest in circular initiatives, the lack of customer focus will impact their likelihood of success at scale.”
When customers were considered, “the value proposition was largely tailored to people who would be early and easy adopters based on their sustainability values alignment rather than being designed to offer value to the broader customer base.”
So, what sort of current examples would best embody this approach? Tesla might be one, where drivability has increasingly helped a new generation of electric vehicles to elbow their internal combustion engine powered cousins off the road. That said, competitors like China’s BYD are now competing bonnet-to-bonnet (or, as Americans would say, hood-to-hood) in terms of quality and, perhaps even more importantly, price.
Second lives
Finally, I asked Loic for some further examples of businesses moving in the right direction. Here is his list:
Patagonia’s “Worn Wear” program transforms wear-and-tear into a badge of honor. Customers trade in used gear for credits or buy refurbished items, reducing waste while deepening emotional connections to their clothing. Clothes with stories foster loyalty, and Patagonia’s seamless online platform and repair services make sustainability effortless.
Mud Jeans reinvents ownership with its leasing model, allowing customers to wear jeans for a year before returning them for recycling or resale. This makes sustainable fashion affordable, stylish, and guilt-free, with a subscription-like experience that blends flexibility and purpose.
IKEA’s “Buy Back & Resell” program extends the life of furniture by inviting customers to return gently used items for resale. Affordable second-hand options reduce waste, and IKEA’s simple, transparent process makes circularity accessible to masses.
Fairphone reimagines smartphones with modular designs that empower customers to repair and upgrade their devices. This extends product life while blending transparency with sustainability, creating a deeper emotional connection to technology.
Apple’s “Self Service Repair” program balances sleek innovation with repairability, offering tools and parts for customers to fix their own devices. This reduces costs, extends product life, and sets a new standard for user-friendly sustainability in tech.
Decathlon’s “Second Life” initiative refurbishes and resells used sports gear, making high-quality equipment more affordable while reducing environmental impact. The process is frictionless, combining sustainability with Decathlon’s hallmark accessibility.
So, I had to ask, what themes does he think emerge from this sample of pro-circularity initiatives? “Reflecting on the list,” he replied, “I would say three themes emerge:
Customer-Centric Design: Each brand prioritises a seamless and rewarding experience that aligns sustainability with customer value
Accessibility and Affordability: By offering practical solutions that are cost-effective, these initiatives appeal to mainstream customers, not just eco-conscious niches.
Longevity and Transparency: Empowering customers to repair, reuse, or trade-in products fosters deeper trust and emotional connection, setting these brands apart in a crowded market.”
On the second of these, he explained: “the affordability point, I think, is very important when we are facing a broader ‘Sustainability Affordability Dilemma, which is raising valid concerns on how sustainable product offerings could be exacerbating social inequality.
I suspect that we will be returning to some of these themes in 2025.
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What readers say:
“John Elkington is unusual in that he has ridden—and helped shape—so many waves of change. But perhaps his central contribution has been in helping to ensure that the tremendous opportunities offered by responsible and sustainable business models are increasingly understood by CEOs and boards.”
PAUL POLMAN, former CEO of Unilever, campaigner, and co-author of Net Positive: How Courageous Companies Thrive by Giving More Than They Take.