The African Century?

Demographics point to a very much more prominent role for Africa

Over the decades, I have worked in a small handful of African countries: Egypt, Kenya, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire. Population growth has been a constant theme throughout. But, even so, I was taken aback by a set of projections I came across this week.

As part of my efforts to get a better sense of our systemic challenges and potential solutions, I have been digging into demographics. In the process, I have been exploring the implications of the generational handover as we Baby Boomers fade from the scene and younger generations take over. In particular, I am keen to understand the values, concerns and priorities they will bring to tomorrow’s change agenda.

And so to the projections. In 1950, for example, Africa accounted for just 5% of the world population, or 227,549,258 people for those who like precision, according to Geographical Magazine. By 2050, the forecast is that the continent will account for 25% (2.5 billion). By that point, strikingly, Nigeria is set to be the world’s third most populous country, after India and China.

But, for me at least, the truly stunning projection is that by 2100 Africa will have reached 4.2 billion people, or 40% of the world population. Imagine that. And imagine the ecological, socio-economic, cultural and political consequences. Interestingly, the Geographical article ends on a positive note, seeing a generation of “smart young Africans, aged 20-23, who have grown up with good nutrition and a decent university education.”

One possible implication is that ever-larger numbers of young Africans will want to move north to work in Europe and North America. But the article concludes that the rising generation “are not going to sit there and let Europeans dictate things. They want to stay in Africa and make a difference.” Their success in doing so will help determine the futures of people way beyond Africa’s current boundaries and influence.