Markets Are Conversations
And our conversations are changing - as I discovered at the World Energy Council's 2024 Congress in Rotterdam
There are moments when you feel the earth move under your feet—and tectonic plates shifting in your brain. That, for me, was Rotterdam this week. In the spirit of collective inquiry driving this series of Substack posts, let me share some things I heard and learned along the way.
Through it all, I am coming to understand markets as conversations. In the process, I increasingly see that to drive change at the necessary pace and scale we must change the conversation at industrial scales. And no sector will feel the impact of the coming changes more intensely than the energy sector.
You also now get the feeling that business leaders in the sector know this in their bones. At a CEO breakfast roundtable I attended on the second day of the congress, someone called for a global carbon tax—and lived to tell the tale.
In the past 50 years I have attend thousands of conferences around the world, speaking at well over 1,500 of them—including this week at the World Energy Council’s 2024 Congress in Rotterdam, from which I returned last night via Eurostar. The event proved to be one of the most powerful serendipity engines I have plugged into for a long time.
The theme this year was Redesigning Energy for People and Planet. And as a result of the constant, roiling conversations I was drawn into during the event’s first couple of days, my thinking on the need to expand our focus from brands, companies and their value webs to the creation of entirely new markets took several big leaps forward, or so it seemed to me.
The original invitation came from Dr Angela Wilkinson, WEC Secretary-General and CEO, who I first met when she worked at Royal Dutch Shell. In her opening speech to the congress, she noted that the words energy transition have become “one of the most frequently-used, politically-loaded and polarizing phrases of recent years.”
She continued to say: “We also know that today’s energy systems are not fit for purpose. The urgency to secure more energy for sustainable development and to decarbonise all energy uses, not just supplies, is crystal clear.” She explained that managing successful global energy transitions – and she stressed the plural – “is essential, not straightforward, and can’t be done all in one go or by any one nation or network alone.”
For those looking for silver bullet solutions, she had a warning. “The uncomfortable news is that there is no one-size-fits-all solution. No quick and easy fix. Complex coordination challenges cannot be ignored or resolved, even with AI or other technology innovations. Success depends on the capabilities of whole societies to manage energy in a new era of globally inclusive, climate-resilient, sustainable development.”
Angela’s specific ask of me had been that I join a panel on “Transformational Leadership”, moderated by Betty Sue Flowers—a human powerhouse who I first met quite some years ago. Among other things, Betty Sue is an emeritus professor at the University of Texas and a former director of the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library & Museum. She has consulted with people like NASA and the CIA.
Now I now full well that when using scenarios you are not meant to have favorite ones, but my all-time favourite is probably the “Jazz” scenario she helped develop for the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) back in the day. A useful summary of the Shell scenarios story can be found here and the original Jazz scenario is nicely summarised here. Intriguingly, Betty Sue’s brief account of the background to Jazz can be found here.
As a storyteller of sorts myself, the aspect of her working life that resonates most powerfully for me is her ongoing work on the power of myth—including her explorations of the work of Joseph Campbell. (His book The Hero’s Journey sits in one of the stacks alongside a chair where I often write, perhaps in the hope that elements of it will transfer osmotically.)
Also on our Transformational Leadership panel were two other market catalysts: first, Philippe Joubert, a former president of Alstom Power, founder and CEO of Earth on Board and a longstanding trustee of one of my favourite NGOs, ClientEarth; and, second, Doris Honold, formerly with Standard Chartered and now board chair for the Climate Bonds Initiative.
Two things that Philippe said stuck in my mind afterward. First, on governance, that if you put good people in stupid systems they tend to become stupid, too. And in driving major transformations, you have to “take care of the losers.” That’s something we’re learning with the gilets jaunes and farmers in France and the push-back against heat pumps in Germany.
Philippe and I had spoken a number of times during the event, including a long conversation earlier in the day in the VIP lounge, and agreed to follow up. Doris and I are also planning to meet up soon.
But one person who I really hadn’t expected to see in Rotterdam was Jane Davidson, former minister for future generations in the Welsh Government. As she came into our conference space and walked to the front of the audience, I jumped down from the stage and gave her a hug. Then later I pulled her into the discussion, where she explained the work she has been doing.
Wales has been a pioneer in longer term planning—and I found myself immersed in conversations with a number of people who had been involved in Shell’s scenario work at some point, including Jeremy Bentham of the Mission Possible Partnership and Adam Kahane and Mille Bøjer of Reos Partners.
Adam and I had a long conversation on the second day—and I’m very much looking forward to reading the draft of his new book. I read a previous one, Radical Collaboration to Accelerate Climate Action, on the train home—alongside Daniel Susskind’s referable new book, Growth.
When it comes to potential future growth, among the key concepts promoted by the WEC is the “energy trilemma”, with healthy energy systems being secure, equitable and environmentally sustainable.
This trilemma will play out very differently depending on which of WEC’s current scenarios turns out to be closest to the emerging reality—or realities. The two main scenarios, which were presented at a CEO Roundtable I attended on the second day of the event, are Rocks and Rivers. To dig deeper, take a look here. But here’s their summary:
To help the world cope with the resulting shocks and challenges, WEC has developed its own navigational tools and an index to track progress in these three dimensions. Its 2024 trilemma report, looking at ways in which tomorrow’s energy systems can be evolved in ways that deliver both resilience and justice, can be found here.
I had some wonderful exchanges in Rotterdam with people who are working to change the conversation, in the process evolving new markets, among them Gabrielle Walker. She is an ambassador for ClientEarth and founder of CUR8, which describes itself as a “market maker” for carbon removal, and its sister organization Rethinking Removals, which aims to accelerate carbon capture to the billion tonne scale by 2030.
At the same opening dinner where I bumped into Gabrielle, and where we listened to COP28 architect Sultan Ahmed al Jaber speak, I sat between Asian Development Bank director-general Ramesh Subramaniam and former Shell CEO Jerome van der Veer. And Jerome mentioned a mutual friend and colleague, Wouter van Dieren, so I dropped him a note when I got back to the hotel.
Turned out that he was speaking at the conference, too. So we then agreed to meet in the VIP lounge ahead of my Transformational Leadership session. Glorious to catch up—and he brought along his colleague Hans van der Loo. The two of them are working on climate risk analyses which remind me of my shock on hearing from client scientists when Elaine and I visited the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution back in 2003, a visit which kick-started my personal blog.
Something I brought back with me to London from Rotterdam was another conversation-starter—and the brain-child of Stuart Candy. I had spoken alongside him many years ago at a panel at a San Francisco design school, and I somehow kept bumped into him during the WEC congress. We took it as a sign and plan to meet later in the summer when he is in the UK.
At the end of that same dinner on the first evening, I was presented with the sort of folder used in high-end restaurants to present the mind-numbing bill. In this case, the bill itemized the carbon cost of all the main items on the menu. It included a Planetary Overshoot Factor—and encouraged the recipient to “Please retain for your carbon tax return.”
Don’t worry, it ended, this bill isn’t real.
Yet.
Hi John, it was very nice meeting you at the congress.
And yes, I agree many important discussions were and still are taking place at the world energy congress. There is a sense of urgency and also an acceptance that big changes are upon us.
However, I found it troubling that corporate economists and financial specialists seem to view the energy transition mostly as an opportunity to make money. Very few have accepted growth, also “green growth”, won’t get us back within the carrying capacity of the earth, with the important note that I am referring to economic growth in the global north.
The global south needs to invest in economic growth while trying to respect planetary boundaries. Given the global demographics that is one of the major challenges of today and tomorrow.
In the north I see little appreciation for the fact that we will need to shift our thinking and actions to future wellbeing, rather than prosperity. To state is more starkly, I think we need to start thinking about investments without financial ROI. Such as investments in a future liveable climate and a future economy that has shrunk to within the regional carrying capacity. That’s all going to cost a lot of money paying dividends that we will have to measure using a different metric than money. I feel few are ready to face this.
Personally I am focussing on two challenges: GHG emissions and climate first aid interventions while we are working on bringing CO2 back to safe levels. With regard to emissions we are in desperate need of a backstop policy that will get us to geological netzero on time. A policy proposal that aims to achieve this is called carbon takeback obligation (CTBO).
With CTBO in place fossil fuel producers will eventually have to make sure all carbon taken out of the subsoil is safely injected back into geological formations. I am very happy to talk more about this proposal if you are interested.
Interesting as always! Curious if Betty Sue mentioned the Heroines Journey, from Campbell’s student Maureen Murdoch?
I think it offers a much healthier model for the kind of journeys leaders and others need to undertake at this time.
https://maureenmurdock.com/articles/articles-the-heroines-journey/