Macron's Call For "Demographic Rearmament"

Can population declines be slowed, let alone reversed? And why does it matter?

Not so long ago we fretted about “population bombs",” and we would be very unwise indeed to ignore the growing risks of continued global population growth. But the focus now seems to be switching to the possibility of “populations busts” in a growing number of developed countries.

On current trends, for example, South Korea’s population is predicted to halve by 2100. Japan’s economic problems in recent years have led some to talk in terms of “shrinkanomics”. A shrinking—and aging—population has left a significant dent in the country’s GDP.

Concerned the threats of longer term depopulation to GDP and a given nation’s international influence, France’s President Emmanuel Macron has even begun to talk in terms of “demographic rearmament.”

Unsurprisingly, there has been alarm about the risk of authoritarian, pro-natalist policies. The focus on demography is timely and sensible, the choice of metaphor not so much. But this issue is an issue that will run and run. Meanwhile, I found this BBC video useful by way of background.