You would hope that political leaders, or those who would like to be considered present and potential future leaders, would spot oncoming challenges (like those signalled in the diagram above), help wake up the voting public to the relevant threats and opportunities, and put their weight behind real-world solutions.
Yes, you would hope.
But in the case of UK Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer it is clear that, while he is not unaware of the oncoming catastrophe of what the UN Secretary-General has called “global boiling,” with 2023 the hottest year on record globally, he seems to lack the courage of his convictions.
His latest U-turn suggests that he is, as teenagers would once have put it, “chicken.”
There are many reasons for this panicked response, but however much Britain may now want to get rid of the Conservatives, and my view is that we cannot see the back of them too soon, it does raise real questions whether Starmer - if and when he wins power - will be able to do anything significant with it?
System change, whether it involves tackling future competitive threats for the national economy, the potential shrivelling of core industries like finance as AI eats their lunch, or solutions to the climate emergency, requires a combination of vision, political courage and stamina that it is increasingly possible that Starmer lacks.
Perhaps we need an index, across the democratic world, of the degree to which would-be leaders have what it takes to deliver timely, effective solutions in a world of systemic crises?