How To Track Market Actors Like Ants?
What if we could observe markets like ant nests at school? And who today designs tomorrow's markets in the same way that Paris does clothing or Munich cars?
There’s a real fascination in following the internal dynamics of model ecosystems, as with the EcoSphere which a friend sent us over 30 years ago from America. I don’t think the Air Mail trip in the dark interior of pretty substantial packaging did it much good, with the resident shrimp conspicuously absent by the time it arrived in London.
But such models can help us understand complex systems—and I’m now trying to track down models that would enable me/us to observe certain types of markets as they operate and evolve in real time. Markets, that is, with high negative or positive social and environmental impacts.
So, does anyone here know of people studying market dynamics in the same way that scientists might track ants via their pheromone trails—or monitor the passage of therapeutic compounds through the human body as they target particular sites?
Obvious possibilities would include efforts to track carbon through specific markets—or, again, the processes by which “forever chemicals” and other toxic compounds course through our economies and then out into the natural environment.
One example I came across recently on the carbon front involved PennState and NASA—and I already knew of Imperial College’s modelling of the economic impacts of efforts to rein in climate change.
Finance ministries, of course, have their zealously guarded models, though they are not easy for ordinary folk to tap into. In the UK, HM Treasury and people like the Office of Budget Responsibility husband (not always successfully) their macroeconomic models—but, once again, such operations are somewhat Druidic, with an aura of secrecy, mystery and even magic swirling around them.
Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke’s recent review suggests that many economic forecasting models are somewhat dodgy at the moment. Among his conclusions: “We find that, while the accuracy of the Bank’s economic forecasts has deteriorated significantly in the past few years, forecasting performance has worsened to a comparable degree in other central banks and among other UK forecasters.”
So who should I talk to about the origins, evolution and redesign of economies to tailor them for particular ends? And just as Paris excels in the design of fashionable clothing, or Munich in the design of (on-the-road-to-extinction) internal combustion engined vehicles, who now excels in the design of tomorrow’s markets?
Jed emmerson is good on things like this. I am ok at it. The folks at transform finance are good.
For anyone wanting to track down Transform Finance, https://transformfinance.media/about-us/. Have subscribed to their e-newsletter.