AI Appears Once In SustAInability, But Twice In BrAIn DrAIn
A 2024 summit focused on AI and Sustainability had me both excited and worried
For better or worse, I have a brain that extrapolates from weak signals, good, bad and ugly—sometimes from data that no self-respecting statistician would go near. Happily, hunch and intuition have served me well over the decades, though often I have imagined major changes coming faster than they did.
That characteristic, or mental flaw as some might choose to see it, was again strongly in evidence this week when I spent several days in Türkiye at the first Global Leaders Summit. At a time when most events have become “summits” and many talks are billed as “keynotes,” my sense was it certainly merited the first tag. And its goal was timely and simple to state: to explore the interface between two rapidly evolving agendas, AI and Sustainability.
Still, given the nature and scale of the likely impacts of AI spotlighted by so many of the speakers, I began to think not just about how AI will shape the future of our economies and markets, but also how the cultural and political contexts in which artificial intelligences evolve will shape their “personalities” and priorities.
Of palaces and slums
If showmanship is an indicator of success, and my sense was that it was central here, the summit’s setting could scarcely have been more magnificent—as indicated in the promotional ad shown below. The summit was held in a well-known palace, part of which is shown on the bottom right of the image, dating back to the Ottoman Empire.
That was then, a time when empires were rather more fashionable than they are today. Now the Çiriğan Palace is part of the five-star Kempinski resort where we were privileged to lay our weary—or at least buzzing—heads. A more personal take on our various adventures can be found here.
Back in its glory days the palace was the scene of mysterious murders and politically motivated house arrests, or perhaps palace arrests, but I imagine that few of the delegates gave much thought to all of that among the marble staircases, sparkling chandeliers and glowing carpets that at times seemed to extend to the horizon.
But how, I found myself wondering, might that semi-regal atmosphere—and the genteel sense of urgency of the proceedings—have morphed had the caravan rolled up instead in one of the city’s huge slum areas, a place like Tarlabaşi?
In fact, as I listened to government ministers and business leaders use the platform as a shop window to signal the growing importance of sustainability and the need for a green transition, there was very limited time—if any—for questions and answers. So, my brain would not stop churning over the country’s demographic realities. Whatever anyone else may have learned, I emerged with little sense of how sustainability-framed thinking applies—and might apply in future—to some of the city’s, and country’s, most pressing challenges.
Conflict and the refugee crisis
Consider the nightmare issue, on all sides, of migrants and refugees. With nearly 5 million foreigners now in the country, of whom around 3.27 million are displaced Syrians, there are growing tensions, as there are in places like Germany and UK. Unsurprisingly, given its location, and while other countries may host more refugees, Türkiye has the biggest population of Syrian refugees.
As a sidebar, and with a significant slice of my childhood spent in Cyprus and my recent 23andMe genetic profiling showing that a substantial proportion of my genes came from Mesopotamia, I have long taken a close personal interest in the region. In that spirit, back in 2002, Elaine and I visited Syria, before the devastating civil war broke out there.
For whatever reason, I remain inexplicably drawn to the region. Recently, for example, Elaine and I travelled around Jordan last October, visiting places like Bethany beyond the Jordan, Jerash, Umm Qais, Petra, Wadi Rum, and Amman.
All of which is to say I am emotionally invested in the region’s future—and concerned to see how the various conflicts will play out. Our visit, worryingly, coincided with Israel’s explosive use of pagers and walkie-talkies to disrupt Hezbollah’s chain of command. As various commentators are now observing, the implications for global supply chainsare likely to be profound.
Meanwhile, I was impressed to hear George Friedman’s session later on the first day of the summit. He explained how Türkiye’s future is likely to be shaped by regional and wider geopolitical trends—including the growing number of conflicts. His argument, at least as I understood it, was that Türkiye is going to have to pick sides between various rival power blocs, something it has been careful to avoid to date.
In what most speakers expect to be a sorely disrupted future, different sorts of leadership will be needed, at all levels of society. And in that context, we very much appreciated the opportunity to talk to professor Martin Gutmann of the Lucerne School of Business during our long taxi ride into the city on the first evening. Or perhaps I should say morning, given the time we arrived at our hotel.
Megatrends: AI and Sustainability
Many of the speakers agreed that AI and sustainability represent two of the biggest challenges—and opportunities—for leaders across all economies and all societies. When I spoke in the first morning session, my given title (exactly as given) was “Future of World.” A tall order.
And so, as often happens, I had bent the rules and chosen instead to re-animate an image I first developed last year for an event called Earth Systems Predictability, organised by Trillium Technologies.
So, my GLS title was: “SustAInability: How Exponential Technologies Can Destroy—Or Save—Us.”
Had I stayed in the palace on the second day, continuing to listen, to do media interviews and to sign Turkish editions of my 2020 book Green Swans, I might well have come away persuaded that Istanbul in particular and Türkiye in general are now gearing up to shape their economies in line with the new priorities suggested by the AI and Sustainability agendas.
But as I spoke to younger innovators and entrepreneurs, both inside and outside the event, a rather different picture started to form in my mind—a picture that has led me to question how AI systems will evolve in different, socio-cultural and political contexts.
Just as a child raised in a violent family is statistically more likely to resort to violence in later life, I wondered what the differences would be between AI systems fed on data from autocratic and democratic societies, or with military offense in mind rather than peacekeeping? As has been the case with human leaders throughout recorded history, might the evolving personalities of AI systems lead to very different social, political and economic trajectories?
My sense from a very limited reading of the literature is that AIs fed on what we might call “Bambi” data will have a better chance of developing Bambi-like characteristics, while AIs fed on “Terminator” data will probably best be played in future sci-fi films by Arnie Schwarzenegger, or a robot version of the same.
AI and Türkiye’s coming brain drain
At this point, it may be worth referring back to my public health warning at the beginning of this post. What follows is based on very slim foundations as far as research, data and market intelligence go. But...
It is my impression that we will not achieve anything like true Sustainability without future generations of AI being coded and fed suitable data. In equal measure, AI will very likely go off the rails unless it is constantly and continuously challenged by insider-outsiders and outsider-insiders—bringing very different values and priorities to the table, or lab bench. The way that some AI-makers have shut down their ethical advisory groups is not encouraging.
The interaction at the interfaces between these two agendas is evolving rapidly but is still inadequate to the leadership task ahead of us. Indeed, I saw limited understanding at the summit of just how transformative these two megatrends will be—particularly where they combine forces. But perhaps that would have come through to a greater degree if there had been genuine debate about some of the thorniest issues.
In one TV interview, I was asked how Türkiye is placed for what comes next. Like George Friedman, I see accelerating socio-cultural challenges and market opportunities. But my hunch is that the country’s current political culture and direction may not serve it particularly well in either direction
As one young Turkish entrepreneur told me, “Honestly, being an entrepreneur in Turkey has become increasingly challenging, especially over the past five years, and even more so since the pandemic. Everyone entrepreneurial seems to either have already left, is preparing to leave, or is hoping to leave.”
So, what’s behind this worrying trend, if it is real—and likely to accelerate? “The economic chaos and pressure stem from financial instability and a regressive mindset,” I was told. “You’ve probably noticed that right-wing politics have unfortunately intensified here, affecting nearly every aspect of life. My observation over recent years is that the ventures that tend to get support are safe, copycat, low-risk projects, lacking innovation. I’ve seen this pattern consistently—both from my participation in various programs and competitions in Türkiye and through the experiences of friends in the field.”
Despite positive projections from the stage, I was warned, “The domains we are passionate about simply aren’t a priority for many people here—whether it’s the authorities, the public, venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, or even the general workforce. Additionally, many of us are uncomfortable with the cultural shift the country has undergone.”
My concern is that the result will be a significant number of talented people migrating to places like Silicon Valley. So, if that’s the evolving reality, what can leaders in Türkiye do to make conditions more attractive to those currently considering leaving—and for those, who as with the Indian scientists and engineers who went racing up the AI learning curve in Silicon Valley, might eventually be attracted back.
Many innovators who are celebrated in the global media are peculiar political animals. So, for example, it is tempting to assume that all tech people are Trump supporters, like PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel or Elon Musk, whose affiliations are too numerous to list here. But remember that since Musk took over at Twitter, rebranded as X, his political affiliations have made the platform much less attractive to many users—myself included.
More worrying still, I agree with Yuval Noah Harari, in views articulated in his new book Nexus, that much of the thinking that has driven the Musks, Thiels and Zuckerbergs of this world has been naïve, stated kindly. The common assumption that simply providing more data and information will save the world is blind to the lessons of history.
As Harari sums up the challenge:
We have named our species Homo sapiens, the wise human—but if humans are so wise, why are we doing so many self-destructive things? In particular, why are we on the verge of committing ecological and technological suicide? Humanity gains power by building large networks of cooperation, but the easiest way to build and maintain these networks is by spreading fictions, fantasies, and mass delusions. In the 21st century, AI may form the nexus for a new network of delusions that could prevent future generations from even attempting to expose its lies and fictions.
In search of upsides, there is—as yet—no utterly compelling evidence suggesting a strong, universal link between AI success, single bottom line performance and a publicly declared commitment to sustainability, though leaders like Google and Microsoft have been focusing significant resources in both areas. Google even now offers an AI assistant that can steer you around its latest environmental report.
Friend-shoring and brain drains
Brought together, these two dynamics—the burgeoning information economy and sustainable development—can act like the components of an oscillating engine. One of the examples I highlighted at the summit involved rare earth minerals, which are increasingly needed for the green transition and politically challenging because China has locked up so much of the supply and seems very happy to turn off the tap when it serves its interests.
There is fault on all sides, of course, but I began by telling the supply side story of DARPA, the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. DARPA is using AI to cut through geological background “noise” when searching for currently “invisible” rare earth mineral deposits. So maybe “friend-shoring” by AI systems can help secure future supplies of critical raw materials.
Then, on the demand side, there is Germany’s GROB, which is working with the UK’s University of Sheffield to develop electromagnets using no rare earth minerals at all. To this end, they screened 100 million alloys, cutting development times from decades to months. In the process, they cut costs by 80% and carbon emissions by 70%.
I would be equally naïve as some of the leaders Harari criticizes if I argued that AI can fall in love with and power the sustainability agenda—and vice versa. As the Global Leaders Summit series evolves, it will offer more opportunities to challenge champions of both the AI and Sustainability agendas at close quarters. The health of tomorrow’s politics and markets depends on that happening—and soon.
So, while I left Istanbul persuaded that a new generation of young Turks will play an increasingly vital role in accelerating that convergence, the looming question, in my mind, is whether they will choose to do that in Türkiye or whether they will force a growing number of lagging countries to spell “brain drain” with two AIs.